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What the Election Results Mean for Immigrants.

by Christopher A. Kerosky, Esq.

The decisive victory of Barack Obama in November’s election, coupled with gains by the Democrats in the U.S. Senate and the House of Representatives, could be good news for immigrants. However, it’s likely they will have to wait at least 1-2 years for immigration reform, as it appears low on the agenda of priorities for an Obama administration.

Obama clearly voiced his support for immigration reform in his Presidential campaign. His transition website (www.change.gov) states that it is the policy of the Obama Administration to “support a system that allows undocumented immigrants who are in good standing to pay a fine, learn English, and go to the back of the line for the opportunity to become citizens.” However, it is notable that this goal is listed behind other immigration policy goals such as “creating secure borders” and “removing incentives to enter illegally”. His recent choice for Director of Homeland Security, Janet Napolitano, was tough on border security while serving as Governor of Arizona. (During a subsequent issue I will discuss what the selection of Ms. Napolitano means for immigration policy.)

If and when Obama chooses to make immigration reform a priority, he will likely have more support for it in Congress. The Democratic Party gained at least 7 seats in the Senate and will hold at least a 58-40 advantage there. In the House, the Democrats also had substantial gains and have a 255-175 advantage. In 2007, the McCain-Kennedy immigration reform bill never reached a vote in the Senate because it lacked the necessary 60 votes to cut-off debate or prevent a promised filibuster by the Republicans. Generally, Democrats tended to support immigration reform while Republicans opposed it – although there were many exceptions in both parties. After January, when the newly-elected Congress is sworn in, there may be enough votes to pass immigration reform, depending upon the timing and substance of such a bill and to what extent the public supports or opposes it.

The big impediment for undocumented immigrants now is that the Obama Administration will have many other priorities in the coming year, including an economic stimulus package, health care reform, the energy crisis, tax legislation and ending the war in Iraq. In an interview on CNN recently, Barack Obama listed immigration as a priority item below these other five. Obama did discuss immigration reform in his post-election meeting with his opponent Senator John McCain and it could be that this becomes their own, special planned bipartisan legislative project in the coming 2-3 years.

The fact is that in these difficult economic times, an immigration reform bill is likely to be politically unpopular. I believe it will be left off of the legislative agenda in 2009 and considered in 2010 at the earliest.